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Godfree Roberts, Ed.D. Education & Geopolitics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst (1973)


China will become an unrivaled superpower in 2040, when it will


·  Dominate every aspect of the world’s economy. China’s population is three times the EU’s so, in 2040, her economy will be fifty percent bigger than the American, European and Japanese economies combined. That’s in line with Nobelist Robert Fogel’s 2010 prediction, “China’s per capita income will hit $85,000 by 2040–more than double the forecast for the European unx–and her share of global GDP, 40 percent, will dwarf that of the United States. That is what economic hegemony will look like”.

·  全面主导世界经济。中国的人口是欧盟的三倍,因此,在2040,中国的经济将比美国、欧洲和日本经济加起来还要大50%。这与诺贝尔奖得主罗伯特·福格尔(RobertFogel)2010年的预测一致:“到2040,中国人均收入将达到85000美元---是欧盟预期的两倍多---她在全球GDP中所占的份额将达到40%,美国与之相比相形见绌,这是真正的经济霸权该有的样子“。

·  Dominate every scientific discipline. The Japan Science and Technology Agency says China is already the most influential country in four of eight core scientific fields, tying with the U.S. China ranks first in computer science, mathematics, materials science and engineering while the U.S. leads in physics, environmental and earth sciences, basic life science and clinical medicine–but China is rapidly catching up in physics (it is spent $6 billion building the world's largest particle accelerator, which should give it the lead in particle physics). Ten years ago, China led in none of these disciplines and, at its current pace it will lead all of them in less than thirteen years.

·  主导所有科学学科。“日本科学技术振兴机构”( Japan Science and Technology Agency)表示,中国已经是八个核心科学领域中最有影响力的国家,与美国并列。中国在计算机科学、数学、材料科学和工程领域排名第一,而美国在物理、环境和地球科学、基础生命科学和临床医学方面领先---但中国在物理学方面正在迅速追赶(中国斥资六十亿美元建造了世界上最大的粒子加速器,这将使它在粒子物理学方面处于领先地位)。十年前,中国在这些学科中完全没有领先,但以目前的速度,它将在不到13年的时间内主导所有这些学科。

·  Dominate every technology. China already leads the world in all fields of civil engineering, manufacturing, supercomputing, speech recognition, graphenics, thorium power, pebble bed reactors, genomics, thermal power generation, quantum communication networks, ASW missiles, in-orbit satellite refueling, passive array radar, metamaterials, hyperspectral imaging, nanotechnology, UHV electricity transmission, electric vehicles, high speed rail, sustainable energy, radio telescopy, sustainable energy research and manufacturing, hypersonic space weapons, satellite quantum communications and quantum secure direct communications. By 2030 it will dominate the remaining technologies like computer chip making and artificial intelligence.

·  主导每项技术。中国已经在土木工程、制造业、超级计算、语音识别、图形学、钍动力、球床反应堆、基因组学、火力发电、量子通信网络、反潜导弹、在轨卫星、被动阵列雷达、超材料、高光谱成像、纳米技术、特高压输电、电动汽车、高速铁路、可持续能源、无线电望远镜、可持续能源研究和制造、高超音速空间武器、量子通讯卫星和量子安全通信等领域领先世界。到2030,它将主导剩下的技术,如计算机芯片制造和人工智能等。

·  Dominate militarily. By 2020 China will completely dominate the battlespace within 500 miles of her borders on land sea and air where her defensive weaponry is more advanced and numerous than America’s offensive suite. Her economy is already much stronger than America’s and, though fleets win battles, economies win wars.

·  在军事上占主导地位。到2020,中国将在距离她的边界500英里内的陆地、海上和空中完全占据主动,在那里她的防御武器比美国的进攻性武器更加先进,数量也更多。那时,她的经济会比美国强大得多:舰队赢得战斗,但经济却能赢得战争。

· Dominate Cyberspace and the Internet. China already dominates the Internet in sheer size and by 2035 more people will transact business on the Internet and spend more doing so than all the citizens in Europe and North America combined.

·  主导网络空间和互联网。中国已经在互联网上独占鳌头,到2035,将有更多的人在互联网上进行交易,其交易量和交易金额将超过欧洲和北美所有公民的总和。

· Dominate in citizen well-being. Thanks to the current anti-poverty drive, by 2020 China will have safer streets, better education, higher social mobility, more rich people and fewer hungry, homeless and poor people than America.

·  在公民幸福度上占主导地位。由于目前的反贫困运动,到2020,中国将拥有比美国更安全的街道、更好的教育、更高的社会流动性、更多的富人和更少的饥饿、无家可归者和穷人。

· Dominate the world ethically. If the government follows President Xi’s suggestions, by 2049 China will again have the same GINI coefficient–the most equitable sharing of wealth–as it did under Mao, and the best human rights record of any major government.

·  在道德上主导世界。如果政府遵循习的建议,到2049,中国将再次拥有与毛泽东时代一样的基尼系数--最公平的财富分享系数--也将是所有主要政府中最好的人权记录。

·  Become the most trusted government on earth. If China avoids wars, doesn’t meddle in other countries’ internal affairs, develops southern and eastern Europe, Africa and Latin America and accomplishes the six tasks listed above, it will become the world’s arbiter and natural leader in 2040.

·  成为地球上最值得信赖的政府。如果中国避免战争,不干涉别国内政,发展与南欧、东欧、非洲和拉美的关系,完成上述六项任务,2040年中国将成为世界的仲裁者和自然领袖。